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An Inverted Yield Curve May Not Portend Doom

Consider the last time the yield curve inverted, in 2006-07. The Federal Reserve, moving aggressively to combat inflationary pressures in the overexuberant housing market, pushed short-term rates well ... read more

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Hits Flattest Level Since Before Financial Crisis

Of significance importance is the yield curve. It is getting a lot of attention because it ... Building Permits came in at 1.22 million units, below expectations. Housing Starts also came in below exp... read more

Japanese Yen And Gold Are About To Break Out As The Yield Curve Flattens

The weakening U.S. and global economies and the BOJ's negative interest rate policy put buying pressures on the yen and gold as safe-havens. The yen continues to rise as the market is unconvinced the ... read more

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State Of The Economy, Part 4: Trade Breakthrough Could Trigger 20% Market Rally

That lower estimate was mostly due to weak housing starts. That's largely a function of rising ... have historically proven to be good predictors of recessions: The 2/10 yield curve; The Base Line and ... read more


Gold, Housing and the Yield Curve

I have often written about the high probability of a recession following an inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), based upon research which suggests the yield ... read more

The Next Major Gold Rally

If the next major reversal of the yield curve is driven primarily by falling short-term interest rates then it will signal the onset of an economic bust. An economic bust would naturally coincide with ... read more

SPX 500 vs. Gold; A Closer Look at Risk

and Amigos #1 (SPX/Gold) and #3 (the 10-2 yield curve) are still on their respective trends (up for SPX/Gold and flattening for the yield curve), indicating a positive and risk ‘on’ macro backdrop. Of ... read more

US Recession - Gold, Housing and the Inverted Yield Curve

I have often written about the high probability of a recession following an inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), based upon research which suggests the yield ... read more

Gold, the stock market and the yield curve

That’s why I consider the yield curve’s trend to be one of the true fundamental drivers of both the stock market and the gold market. Not surprisingly, when the yield curve’s trend is bullish for the ... read more



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