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Bond Markets Recession Indicator May Not Be Working This Time - Latest News


Bond market's recession indicator may not be working this time

The bond market's recession indicator, the Treasury yield curve, continues to reflect a future weakness in the economy, but some analysts say it is not acting as the signal it once did. The yield curv... read more

The bond market may be raising recession fears, but don't expect one anytime soon

"The thesis that recession is coming in 2020 has quickly become popular in financial markets," Mericle said. "While we expect a meaningful slowdown by then, we do not ... indicators" she uses as a gui... read more

Wall Street's favorite recession indicator is flashing yellow — but that may be about to change

The flattening of the yield curve, a bond market pattern that often portends recessions ... year notes has recently been hovering at about half a percentage point. That may not seem like much, but in ... read more

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The Next Recession Could Be Closer Than You Think: 7 Things Investors Need To Know

This means that bond investors become more eager to front run the recession to earn capital gains. Ok, so now that we know what the yield curve is, and how it's supposed to theoretically work ... I'm ... read more

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The bond market's recession signal may be wrong this time

A trend in the bond market that has a long history of foreboding accuracy has kindled talk of a recession ... credit contraction did not ensue until later that year. In other words, there could be a c... read more

Why Hold Bonds In The Current Market?

Therefore, rising rates may not have a direct impact on bond prices, because of what is already factored in. Bond holders should worry only if rates rise more or faster than currently expected. Unfort... read more

Is a flattening yield curve a sign of a coming recession?

The stock market is volatile ... other leading indicators do not cause me concern at this time. It is very difficult to believe we are heading towards a recession in the near future. Given the technol... read more

8 Big Picture Lessons About Markets Investors Need To Know Now

The yield curve inverted as investors in Treasury bonds started to anticipate that the boom soon would be followed by a bust, which invariably happened. This time may or may not be different ... there ... read more

For the U.S. economy, this could be as good as it gets

But since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, the U.S. has been expanding for nine years, and this expansion is now second only to the one between 1991 and 2001. While it may ... not ac... read more

A Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic And Market Perils

Analysis of how current Federal Reserve actions may be creating another inversion in the coming months or years. What is different about this time around ... in stocks, bonds, and real estate. In the ... read more

Bond market's recession indicator may not be working this time

A bond market recession indicator, considered to be reliable, is sending more and more negative signals about the economy, but some analysts say there's no reason for fear. The indicator, the so-calle... read more

The Yield Curve As Recession Predictor: Should We Worry Today?

The yield curve has proved to be a valuable indicator ... not quite red, but certainly not green. However, the yield curve is only indicative of a recession. It is neither definitive nor causal. The y... read more



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