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Bond Markets Recession Indicator May Not Be Working This Time - Latest News


Bond market's recession indicator may not be working this time

A bond market recession indicator considered to be reliable is sending more and more negative signals about the economy, but some analysts say there's no reason for fear. The indicator, the so-called ... read more

State Of The Economy Part 7: 3 Reasons The Bull Market Is Likely To Continue

For the first time ... not be used as a market timing mechanism but rather purely as a good recession risk indicator. The yield curve is near its lowest level in 11 years. This is due to the bond ... read more

Bond Traders See 2019 as Battleground for Bets on Fed Rate Path

But it may also deliver a painful blow to bond bulls or even the Fed ... which was the last time it was inverted, a phenomenon that has been a reliable predictor of recession. “The market is starting ... read more

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What Is a Bear Market and What Does it Mean in 2018?

recession and overvaluations are typically the main culprits to watch out for. One of the major indicators that a bear market may be on the way is the yield curve. While the yield curve is currently f... read more


Op-ed: This market indicator has predicted the past 7 recessions. Here's where it may be headed next

This next inversion will occur in the context of record high equity, real estate and bond market valuations that will require another government bailout. However, this time around the recession will . ... read more

How Warren Buffett Navigates Markets at All-Time Highs

Many ask: Should we put new money to work ... the market and earnings is not as wide this cycle as during the late '90s. That was a bubble. Today's investing environment may be frothy, but it's no bub... read more

Here's how you can prepare for the next bear market

Every recession ... Treasury bonds. Some fear that this time around, given very low interest rates already, Treasuries have less potential to act as an offset to equity market losses. However, as can ... read more

Flat Yield Curve = Recession? Not So Fast

But another metric may be a better, more reliable near-term indicator. The narrowing US yield curve may not be a sign of an imminent recession ... at a setpoint in time, of bonds having equal ... read more

Some Investors Want a Recession in Turkey

But for some investors, the risk of a recession hitting the price of their investments may be lower than the risk of inflation eroding the value of those shares, bonds and other assets. “Indicators su... read more

Seriously, How Long Can We Go Before the Next Recession?

I do not. Brokamp: It was 1991. So, if they can avoid a recession for almost three decades... Southwick: Surely, we can. Brokamp: Why can't we in the US? So, who knows? Maybe. Southwick: They may be . ... read more

Who Finances America's Borrowing? Recession Indicator for Independent Thinkers Part 2

Let’s discuss a caveat that you might not have considered ... our inflation indicator, we subtracted real GDP growth from new bank credit to isolate the amount that might flow into inflation. But this ... read more



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